Ten years ago Gov. Pete Wilson's blue-ribbon Constitutional
Revision Commission proposed a long list of ideas to reform California
government. Most were promptly forgotten.
Since then we've had an accumulation of additional reform proposals,
some from governmental commissions, many from a proliferation
of private good-government organizations. With a few exceptions,
they've focused on narrow and relatively uncontroversial objectives:
Easing term limits; revising or eliminating constitutional auto-pilot
spending formulas; lowering the two-thirds majority requirement
in the Legislature to pass a budget or raise taxes; taking the
power to draw legislative and congressional districts from the
Legislature and giving it to a nonpartisan commission; restoring
some fiscal authority to local governments; reforming the initiative
process. Most were either ignored or rejected by the voters.
As worthy as these proposals are, there are even more important
issues that aren't getting the attention they require. Are we
thinking too big, or thinking too small? Is the conversation we
are having in California really about the issues and questions
that matter most? Nearly everyone in the California establishment
-- academics, civic leaders, journalists, public commissions and
a growing roster of private reform groups -- believes the state's
angry electorate urgently wants things fixed and that the convoluted,
nonresponsive system is driving California ever deeper into deficits
and gridlock. The recall of Gov. Gray Davis in 2003 was widely
read as a voter revolt against the system.
But, is it also possible that voters prefer the status quo to
the devil they don't know? Given the state's dramatic demographic
and economic changes, its ethnic divisions, and the fears about
jobs, health care, pensions, outsourcing and immigration, is it
possible that California voters may like a little gridlock and
a dysfunctional government that doesn't do all that much?
The new California urgently requires the thoughtful dialogue
that only private organizations -- unhampered by political agendas
and dedicated to fostering more public awareness -- can effectively
generate. At this moment, a lot of the most crucial issues are
too hot for politicians and public commissions.
There are several: The connected questions of tax policy and
growth management; the chasm between the voters and the general
population; the growing gap between California's haves and have-nots.
But probably the most crucial is the impact of immigration on
the economy and public services, a subject now largely left to
radio talk frothers, bloggers and partisan activists.
In California, where immigrants constitute 26 percent of the
population, the high rate of intermarriage is quickly making all
the old ethnic categories obsolete, and links to other nations
-- economic, technological, social, cultural -- have become a
major feature of the landscape. We may be more part of the global
world than any other place on earth.
Nearly 70 percent of California's electorate is non- Hispanic
white, even though whites make up only 46 percent of the population.
Those voters are older, more affluent and have fewer school-age
children. As reported in a Public Policy Institute of California
survey earlier this month, they're more conservative on a wide
range of issues than the population as a whole.
Are those voters anxious about, if not fearful of, the potential
political power of California's growing minority population? Would
they prefer that the levers of government be just a little harder
to work?
It wouldn't be unprecedented in American history: A century ago,
progressive reform was energized by similar fears -- industrialization,
urban machines and the growing numbers of Irish, Italians, Poles
and other Eastern European immigrants. The framers wrote a complex
system of checks and balances into the U.S. Constitution in large
part because they feared the power of unchecked popular majorities.
It's possible that many of us -- to spread the responsibility
liberally -- are too concerned with restoration of the cozy world
and political institutions of the past and not concerned enough
with the new and radically different California that's grown around
us. The gridlock on immigration reform in Congress reflects Americans'
deep ambivalence about immigration, legal and illegal. We want
the labor but not the people; we chafe at the strain on public
services but don't want immigrant children to be denied an education.
But much of that ambivalence rests on dated and sometimes flatly
false information. Because many voters are reluctant to support
generous public services that are perceived to be going to people
different from themselves or to trust government that seems too
responsive to others, the misapprehensions may themselves be among
the largest barriers to the good government the reformers long
for.
Essayist Richard Rodriguez points out that the children born
in California now don't look like their grandparents. Many come
from families that include citizens and legal and illegal immigrants,
as well as countless relatives in Mexico or El Salvador or India.
But those children also will be the workers on whose skills and
education the future of California's economy will depend. We live
on a border that looks ever more like a region, and not a line.
In fact, most of the growth of the Latino and Asian populations
is generated by natural increase -- births -- not by current immigration.
The California economy has grown substantially in the past 15
years, despite the growth of immigrant families and despite two
recessions, one largely caused by downturns in aerospace, the
other in high-tech, neither of which had anything to do with immigration.
Major economic indicators for California were better in 2004
than they were in 1990, says Steve Levy, who heads the Center
for the Continuing Study of the California Economy. The state
unemployment rate was lower in 2004 than in 1990, and while all
wages have trailed economic growth, California's average wages
have risen faster than the nation's.
Because of the low skills of some immigrants, their fiscal impact
on local and state governments -- the difference between what
they and their children cost in public services and what they
pay in taxes -- has been negative. They've depressed wages of
low-skilled workers, though it's not certain how much or with
what consequences.
But in a report commissioned by the state's Labor and Workforce
Development Agency issued a year ago, Levy points out that "single
period analyses fail to take into account the long-term fiscal
impact as immigrants move through the work force." Those
analyses treat education -- by far the largest cost -- as a cost
item only and not as an investment with future benefits for the
economy and the public treasury. The report is online at http://www.labor.ca.gov/panel/impactimmcaecon.pdf.
Nor has there been much attention on the dynamics of immigration,
on the fact that a growing proportion of California's immigrant
population has been here 10 years or more or on the rate at which
they and their children are assimilating. No one asks about the
lack of consistency in laws that grant in-state college tuition
to illegal immigrant graduates of California schools but don't
allow them to drive or get financial aid.
There is still too little hard data -- beyond rhetoric -- and
even less serious discussion about the economic difference between
a California future with an educated and skilled work force, much
of it inevitably Asian, black and Latino, and one without it.
More broadly, the realities of California's demographics, economy
and the links of its people with other nations -- a California
altogether different from what it was 40 years ago -- are wildly
out of sync with a lot of traditional assumptions.
Given the regionalization of the border, do the state and nation
require multinational institutions and arrangements on an array
of common issues -- crime, drugs, commerce, labor, resources,
environment, health, immigration -- that have barely been imagined,
let alone debated? NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement,
allows the movement of goods and capital across the Mexican and
Canadian borders, but takes no account of its profound impact
on workers. It was supposed to reduce the economic pressure driving
Mexicans north, but if anything has had the opposite effect. What
would be the impact, as now seems possible, of an increasingly
unstable Mexico?
That's not to question the importance of many of the items on
the current agenda. Voices of Reform, a project of San Francisco's
Commonwealth Club, has worked intensively on redistricting. The
New California Network is aimed primarily at ending California's
fiscal crises. Common Sense California seeks to address "the
fundamental disconnection and lack of trust between the people
of California and those we have elected to make the vital investments
and decisions that will affect our quality of life." The
Sacramento-based Western chapter of the New America Foundation
wants to create a citizen assembly, as British Columbia has done,
to develop a reform agenda.
Some have business and/or foundation funding. Some like the long-established
Common Cause are member organizations. Next Ten, which is focused
on educating voters about the budget process, is funded by its
director, venture capitalist and philanthropist Noel Perry. It
has an online "budget challenge" at www.calregions.org/statepolicy/nextten.html,
asking participants to figure out the trade-offs -- the tax increases
and/or spending cuts (which and how much) -- to balance the state
budget.
The leadership is largely middle-class professionals, centrist
politicians and ex-politicians, and business executives -- though
rarely a labor leader -- looking for change in a state where,
in their view at least, political extremes tend to dominate.
At their conferences, they draw from a common class of speakers:
Joe Canciamilla, a Democrat, and Keith Richman, a Republican,
the Legislature's two-man "bipartisan caucus;" Bill
Hauck, who chaired the California Constitutional Revision Commission
a decade ago and now directs the California Business Roundtable;
Dan Schnur, former Gov. Pete Wilson's communications director;
Bob Stern, co-author of the California Political Reform Act and
Tracy Westen, both of the Center for Government Studies in Los
Angeles; former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg and his friend
David Abel, who chaired two speakers' commissions, one on state
and local finance, the other on reform of the initiative process.
Maybe the oddest couple in this year's round of reformism was
Hertzberg and former Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte, engineers
of California's 2001 incumbent-protection gerrymander. "We
know as well as anyone," they wrote in an op-ed for The Bee,
"how the process really works -- and doesn't work -- for
the state and its people."
Like their predecessors at the turn of the last century, today's
reformers look back to a time when government seemed to work.
Unlike them, their efforts -- many of them worthwhile and in some
cases urgent -- have had only limited success. Sen. Alan Lowenthal's
SCA 3, a redistricting reform bill that's been kicked around the
Legislature for more than a year, once again failed to pass, despite
the earnest promises of the leadership and the work of Voices
of Reform. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's entire reform agenda,
some of it left over from earlier proposals, crashed in last year's
special election.
Those votes may have been more a consequence of the weakness
of the particulars than a rejection of the basic idea. But they
also raise the possibility that the elite reform agenda, most
of which is about governmental process, lacks traction when broader
issues -- the impact of immigration, the new economy, the new
California society -- overshadow everything and beg to be addressed.
Some major California foundations are now having private discussions
about where to concentrate their efforts. If they and other reformers
want to think big and enlarge the conversation about the state's
future, there are pressing issues and projects worthy of their
investment and dedication -- and of public attention.
Peter Schrag can be reached at Box 15779, Sacramento, CA 95852-0779
or at pschrag@sacbee.com. |